Projection Bias

People tend to project their current emotional states into the future.


We can remember that we have had other emotional states in the past. Nevertheless we can not imagine that we will feel differently in the future in any fashion other than how we feel at the present time.


This “projection bias” is one of the strongest biases we have. It plays havoc with our ability to plan intelligently for our future1.


Using an independent source to assist in planning helps overcome this bias.


1. This bias explains the extent to which we buy high calorie food while shopping at the grocery store when hungry and explains why we continue to sit in cash until a bull market is well underway before investing.