The Distinction between a question of if and a question of when

I was listening to the evening news last night when I heard Brian Williams say “the Japanese government is using helicopters, fire trucks and water cannon to try and contain the nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant.”

Helicopters, fire trucks and water cannon are the tools we are reduced to using to solve a disaster at a plant over which billions of dollars were spent in its design and construction. Presumably some of that money was spent with safety in mind.


So let me see if I have this straight (think back to your high school geometry training):

1. Japan and its east coast in particular sit at the center of earthquake universe.


2. The location of the major fault and the structure of the ocean floor off the east coast of Japan are well known and make it certain that a tsunami will occur after an earthquake there.


3. Tsunamis are giant ocean waves followed by a flood.


4. You build your nuclear plant on the coast right where the tsunami will strike if an earthquake happens.


5. It isn’t a question of if an earthquake will happen it’s a question of when.


6. Pumping water into the reactors is the critical and only method of averting a meltdown disaster.


7. The pumps require power to operate.


8. After billions of dollars in design you put the backup power systems right on sea level at the plant and even put them between the reactors and the seashore. As Jon Stewart would say – at the seashore, on sea level, right where the tsunami is going to strike.


9. If the power to the pumps goes out the rest of the design safety doesn’t make any difference.




Well then you had better make sure you keep the helicopters, fire trucks and water cannon nearby but for heaven sake don’t put them in the same spot you put the back up power supply – on the seashore, at sea level, right where the tsunami will strike.
Because remember it is not a question of if, it is a question of when.
And another thing, remember when I said we are not stupid, well forget that.




Will Rogers, where are you man?