The Yearn to Confirm

A human condition, which operates subconsciously and compulsively - called “confirmation bias” by psychologists - may help explain the impasse we see in ongoing political debate. It has been confirmed to cloud economic decisions and probably has a significant effect on people who decide the outcome of trials and arbitrations.



In short people tend to search for or interpret new information in a way that confirms their existing opinions or beliefs. They avoid information and interpretations which contradict their opinions or beliefs.


Some quotes from Tolstoy on this subject


"I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabrics of their life"


"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him.”


A quote from Francis Bacon


“The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion ... draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects or despises, or else by some distinction sets aside or rejects.”


Google “confirmation bias” if you want to research this phenomena. Wikipedia has a good piece with substantial footnotes on the psychological studies which identified or discussed this bias.

People Overreact to News both Good and Bad

When we are asked to recall a list of items in any order (free recall), we tend to begin recall with the end of the list, recalling those items best (the “recency effect”).



People tend to place far too much emphasis on recently announced “news.” Rather than placing the appropriate emphasis on more salient but “distant” information, we emphasize what we can recall and the easier it is to recall (some might say “fresher or vivid in our minds”) the more importance we place on that information.


The foregoing phenomenon helps explain the sudden swings in our financial markets.